The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic tropical season on Aug. 10, predicting a 60% chance of 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.
Of those storms, six to 11 could become hurricanes, including two to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 mph.
This increased likelihood of above-normal hurricane activity is being driven by current ocean and atmospheric conditions — including record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the ongoing El Niño event.
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El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Usually, El Niño suppresses storm development by increasing upper-level winds in the Atlantic Ocean that can tear hurricanes apart and disrupt major storms as they are forming.
NOAA has said there is a greater than 95% chance that El Niño conditions will linger through the winter.
NOAA’s initial forecast, released in May, predicted there will be a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
The Atlantic basin covers the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
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The 2023 list of storm names total 21, using almost every letter of the alphabet. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), not the U.S. National Hurricane Center, is responsible for tropical cyclone names.
The Atlantic tropical season storm names in 2023 are Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney.
If we have an active season and run through the entire list of names, a supplemental list will be used.
