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Be flexible with outdoor plans this Labor Day weekend, rain chances are going up

Weekend washout unlikely despite the possibility of some heavy downpours

Often called the "unofficial end to summer," Labor Day weekend will undoubtedly have many venturing outdoors for some late-summer fun. However, the weather may not cooperate entirely. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast.

Now, before you go too far and cancel your plans, let's take a minute for a closer look at the forecast.

The weather changes will begin to unfold on Friday as a weak cold front drops down from the north. This front will be responsible for widespread thunderstorms as it works its way through Kansas, Oklahoma, and even the Texas Panhandle before it gets here. Some of those storms could even be severe up there.

However, by the time it gets here, it will slow down to a snail's pace. As a result, a few hit-and-miss storms are possible, but it's unlikely it will be a solid line. This means that not everyone will see the rain on Friday. Nonetheless, any storms that do develop will have the potential for very heavy bursts of rain and brief damaging wind gusts. Friday's rain chance favors the afternoon or evening.

The front will slowly drift to the south over the weekend and gradually come to a halt. Also known as a "stationary front," this will help serve as a focal point for additional scattered storms to develop on Saturday, especially during the heating of the day.

Complicating matters will be an area of low pressure coming up from Southeast Texas this weekend. This weather feature could certainly contribute to our rain chances, especially farther east and southeast.

Right now Sunday and Monday appear to offer the best chance of rain. Even still, it likely will not be a washout. In fact, there will be more dry hours than wet.

Although temperatures will definitely be cooler this weekend (low 90s) and early next week (upper 80s), it will not feel "refreshing" by any means. This is because the humidity will remain quite high.

This high humidity will likely contribute to some heavy rain totals...somewhere. At this point, it's impossible to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain will fall, but heavier amounts are looking like more of a possibility to the west.

Rain totals will likely vary greatly due to the scattered nature of the thunderstorms. Before all is said and done, some spots could receive well over an inch.

Bottom line: have a backup plan or, at the very least, keep those outdoor plans flexible. And as always, check back with NBC5 (your favorite weather team!) for the very latest.

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