Ahead of Wednesday vote, Senator Cornyn aims for majority leader

This week we will find out if a Texan will become one of the most powerful people in the country. U.S. Senator John Cornyn is one of three leading contenders to be majority leader next year after the GOP made gains during Tuesday's election and plan to sweep into power in January.

This Wednesday there is scheduled a secret ballot vote in the Republican caucus in Washington D.C. to decide who will be the next Republican speaker. The majority leader is arguably the second most powerful person in the country, leading the 100-member upper chamber in the legislative branch.

“The majority leader of the senate really controls what goes to the floor for a vote so if he doesn’t want it to get voted on it doesn’t get voted on. If he does want it, it does," said Republican strategist Vinny Minchillo.

Minchillo tells NBC 5 that if Cornyn gets the leadership spot it will give Texas voters and other Texas lawmakers a prime seat at the table when dividing up resources and passing national policy - especially after Republicans won control from Democrats in the chamber last Tuesday.

“Republicans in the Senate, they’ve really been at the kid's table. They really haven’t had a seat at the big boy table, even though they’ve had 49 members. So this could be a really big change," said Minchillo.

Senator Cornyn helped campaign with President-elect Donald Trump on the home stretch of the campaign in Texas and Nevada. When he announced his run for party leader earlier this year he promised to increase transparency in the institution.

"From my experience both as Whip advancing President Trump's agenda through the Senate to serving as a rank-and-file member now, I learned what works and what does not," said Cornyn, "We will return power back to the members; there will be no more backroom deals or forced votes on bills without adequate time for review, debate, and amendment."

Some critics, however, see Cornyn and his main rival, South Dakota Senator John Thune as more in line with Senate tradition - as top allies of outgoing Republican leader Mitch McConnell.

Thune is now currently the Whip, responsible for "whipping" votes for party priorities. It's a post Cornyn used to have.

New Republican power brokers Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson have backed the underdog candidate Florida Senator Rick Scott, along with prominent online media figures from the populist wing of the party.

Wednesday's vote will not just give the country a new Senate leader but it will also be a key test of power for the growing strength of outsider perspectives raging through the Republican party. The inner-party battle will also be a test of how much power President-elect Donald Trump's “MAGA” movement will bring in the next four years.

“I talk to all my colleagues, and they are clear what they want and know we need to change. They want to be treated as equals, want to be part of a team. They know I have a great relationship with Trump and the speaker of the House, and I am a business guy. And I will get the Trump agenda done,” Scott told NBC News.

Minchillo believes the outside pressure may actually work against Scott, especially after his campaign efforts leading the National Republican Senatorial Committee fell flat in defeating Democrats.

"Senators are funny people and they really believe that they have their way of doing things and they’re not very interested in outside influence," said Minchillo.

He said the 2022 campaign was "an unmitigated disaster that really nearly ran the committee out of business. $150 million dollars to the wrong and a lot of senators had to raise a lot of money just to get the committee back to even and those guys have long memories.”

The outside pressure may indeed backfire.

The Senate is a famously insular body that was designed by the country's founders to be slightly detached from the current popular will. Senators have staggered six-year terms instead of every official elected every two years like the House of Representatives. It would be unusual for Scott to leapfrog two others who have served much longer with deeper relationships in the chamber.

“It’s a loud online presence that doesn’t ultimately add up to votes in the Senate,” said one Senate Republican aide, who spoke to NBC News and requested anonymity to speak candidly about the race’s dynamics. “And senators are reacting negatively to this.”

There's a closed-door candidate forum on Tuesday before the expected Wednesday caucus vote.

Scott is less popular among his colleagues than Thune and Cornyn. According to NBC News, he received just 10 votes when he unsuccessfully challenged McConnell for the top job in 2022.

“It’s Thune’s race to lose,” said Mike Davis, a pugnacious Trump ally who previously served as a top aide to Senate Republicans.

Trump himself has not voiced an opinion on a specific candidate but he has made one public demand: the next GOP leader should support his ability to make “recess appointments” to temporarily fill his administration without Senate confirmations.

“I’ve spent eight months carefully listening to my colleagues about their vision for the next chapter of the Senate Republican Conference, especially as we hit the ground running with President Trump,” Thune said in a statement to NBC News. “One thing is clear: We must act quickly and decisively to get the president’s cabinet and other nominees in place as soon as possible.

Cornyn vowed that if Democrats try to block Trump’s nominees, “we will stay in session, including weekends, until they relent. Additionally, the Constitution expressly confers the power on the President to make recess appointments.”

Scott, meanwhile, responded to Trump on X: “100% agree.”