A series of political polls show Texas has a tightening race in November.
The Texas Politics Project shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 5%. The Hill and Emerson University have him up by 4%, and the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation has him up by 6%.
All of the polling shows the race is closer than this Republican-dominated state usually sees. In 2020, Trump won the state by roughly 5.5% against now-President Joe Biden.
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The top-of-the-ticket races get even closer when it comes to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) vs. U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas). The Hill and Emerson poll has Cruz up by 4%, the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation has Cruz up by 3%, and Morning Consult has Allred up by 1%.
While political experts suggest not taking one poll as gospel, several surveys can reveal the race's trend.
“The sleeping giant is awake and the sleeping giant is determinative of who will win these races," said Jason Villalba, a former Republican state representative and now the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation chair.
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Villalba's latest poll shows Trump up 6% but Cruz only up 3%. According to Villalba, the difference is Trump's overperformance among Texas Hispanic voters.
“The unifying theme is generally they’re immigrants into the country. They’re family-centric. They’re conservative on the kitchen table issues, but they’re not necessarily conservative in what we’d consider political issues. So guns and abortion aren’t going to be issues that resonate, but education and healthcare are," said Villalba.
He said that if Harris can cut away Trump's Hispanic support, she can bring the race closer. Allred, too, could pull off an upset, Villalba said.
