A slowly developing La Niña is favored to influence weather for the upcoming winter across most of the country, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook released by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). According to NOAA, there is a 71% chance that La Niña conditions will develop by November. This outlook is for December 2024 through February 2025 and contains information on temperature and precipitation conditions.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored across southern parts of the U.S., including the eastern Great Lakes, New England, and northern Alaska. This area includes North Texas.
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Below-normal temperatures are most likely in southern Alaska, with below-normal temperatures slightly favored from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Great Plains.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
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A potential La Niña pattern can greatly affect precipitation in the United States.
Northwestern parts of the United States could typically experience wetter-than-average precipitation. This pattern could lead to heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and mudslides in the lower elevations. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions could be possible across higher elevations.
For Texas, below-normal precipitation could take shape, causing an increased threat of drought and wildfire conditions.
This setup can also lead to more severe weather outbreaks across North Texas.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the jet stream becomes more amplified, sending some storm chances our way. At the same time, warmer-than-normal waters in the Gulf of Mexico can help increase the warmth of the air and moisture content, fueling severe storms.
WHY IS IT CALLED LA NIÑA?
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called "a cold event."
During La Niña events, trade winds are stronger than usual pushing warm water toward Asia. When this happens cooler water in the Pacific Ocean comes to the surface near the U.S. West Coast. This causes lift to produce unstable weather conditions across the northwestern United States and the Great Lakes.
