Texas is one of 15 states, along with one U.S. territory, that will hold its primary election on Super Tuesday, March 5. Depending on which primary voters decide to cast a ballot in, they'll choose between former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley for the Republican presidential nomination, or, in the Democratic primary, form among 10 candidates in the race to oppose U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
In a February poll conducted by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, Trump led Haley by 71 points among potential Republican primary voters.
It's not just Trump's popularity in his race, but his endorsement that carries weight. Further down the ballot, the former president endorsed David Covey, the primary challenger of Texas Speaker of the House Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont).
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"Talking with people in the district, I think there is a real possibility that David Covey wins that primary and takes out the sitting Speaker of the House, "Texas Republican PartyChairman Matt Rinaldi said. "If he does do that, I think the entire landscape of Texas politics changes."
The race to oppose Cruz is one that Democrats will keep an eye on. The two highest-polling candidates in the race are U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) and state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio). However, polling shows that Cruz may not be as vulnerable as he was when he narrowly beat former Congressman Beto O'Rourke in the 2018 general election.
"Cruz is fascinating because even going back to when he first came into the Congress in 2012, he kind of angered a lot of people with the government shutdown back then, "University of North Texas political science professor Kimi King said. "And then again, he rehabilitated himself. And then he had challenges -- he flew to Mexico and the freeze and all these other kinds of things. Cruz comes through these things very well."
By running for the U.S. Senate, Allred leaves the door open for a new Democratic face to run for his seat in Texas' 32nd Congressional district. In a field of 10, state Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) and trauma surgeon Brian Williams are among the top candidates.
"We have an incredible slate of people that are running for that seat, "Texas Democratic PartyExecutive Director Monique Alcala said. "State Rep. Julie Johnson would be the first LGBTQ person to be in that seat, and then Brian Williams has an incredible track record. We know that we'd be very lucky to have any one of the folks that are that are running for that seat."
One of the high-profile retirements in the Texas Congressional delegation is that of U.S. Rep. Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth), who has served the state's 12th district since 1997. Five candidates are running for her seat, including state Rep. Craig Goldman (R-Fort Worth), who has the endorsement of Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker, and business owner John O'Shea, who is supported by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
"I'd like to see someone who is principled, who has fought with the grassroots before and isn't looking for a position," Rinaldi said. "Looking to actually serve people and do good. I'd like to see somebody who has shown a record of being independent and standing up for their principles even when they were under a lot of pressure not to do so. I think I look for that in any candidate."
Once voters get through Tuesday, the attention will turn to November's general election. There's normally one issue that drives results in the general, but King said 2024 could be an exception.
"We say, 'How's the economy doing?' but Biden's kind of doing a whole lot better on that. Why hasn't he taken that one down? But the border issue has become such a problem, and the failure of the Democrats to address it has just been problematic," she said. "Everything is up in the air in Texas and American politics... It's going to be like nothing this country has ever seen."
