At the start of the hurricane season, NOAA predicted an above-normal year with 20 to 25 named storms, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes. In contrast, last year saw just 19 named storms.
So, what drove this more aggressive forecast? The primary factor was the unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico.
With less than a month remaining in the season and more than half of the predicted storms already named, let’s take a look at how the season has unfolded so far.
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- 17 named storms so far this season: A through R.
- Only five hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. this year: Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene, and Milton
- Only two hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. as major hurricanes: Helene (Category 4; Florida's Big Bend Region) and Milton (Category 3; Siesta Key, FL)
- Five "fish storms" (storms that pose no threat to land): Gordon, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, and Leslie
There have been only three seasons with six hurricanes making landfall: 2020, 1985, and 1886. Either way, this season has been above normal, as predicted.
Currently, Hurricane Rafael is the only active storm in the Atlantic. It is expected to weaken into a tropical storm as it approaches the U.S. southwestern Gulf Coast. Notably, no named storm has made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast since the 1850s.
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For the latest track and updates on this storm, check out our story, Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Rafael.
