Flawed predictions shaped recent market losses, Jim Cramer says

CNBC's Jim Cramer reviewed recent market action, saying some of the downturn over the past several sessions was due to faulty predictions.
"Companies, and even the Fed, should not make predictions unless they know that the predictions are well within reach," he said. "No one ever held it against you for being too conservative with your guidance."
Cramer said an overzealous prediction hurt Micron, as the semiconductor outfit was optimistic the PC business would be strong.

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Thursday reviewed recent market action, saying some of the downturn over the past several sessions was due to faulty predictions.

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"Companies, and even the Fed, should not make predictions unless they know that the predictions are well within reach," he said. "No one ever held it against you for being too conservative with your guidance. And if you don't have enough visibility to make a good prediction, just stay mum."

According to Cramer, unmet expectations and aggressive guidance drove some of the recent sell-off. The averages have tanked as of late, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its first 10-day losing streak since 1974 on Wednesday. But the 30-stock Dow slinked towards recovery on Thursday, finishing up 0.04%, while the S&P 500 slid 0.09% and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.10%.

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Investors were disappointed by commentary from the Federal Reserve after it cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, Cramer said. The cut was widely expected, but Wall Street balked when the central bank indicated it intended to make two cuts next year, instead of the four cuts it teased a few months ago. Cramer said the Fed should have been more cautious about the third cut, and it should have better maintained its staunch data-driven approach to decisions. Cramer suggested that recent economic data didn't justify the cut and said Fed Chair Jerome Powell was "trapped by his own prediction."

An overzealous prediction also hurt Micron, Cramer added, saying the semiconductor outfit was optimistic the PC business would be strong. But during Wednesday night's earnings call, Micron said the PC refresh cycle is "unfolding more gradually." The company described inventory challenges and issued weaker-than-expected guidance. Shares plunged Thursday, down more than 16% by close, but Cramer suggested the loss might not have been as severe had expectations been lower.

"In the world of Wall Street, if you make a prediction, you better beat it, or else your stock's going to get clobbered," he said.