Texas power grid

Texas power grid holds strong but analysts warn it's vulnerable in a stronger storm

Analysts who track the situation closely said that Texas is still at risk of rolling blackouts if we see a much colder, more intense storm like the one we experienced in 2021

NBC Universal, Inc.

Winter weather in Texas often leads to questions about the state’s power grid – after a massive winter storm knocked out power to much of the state in 2021. Senior investigative reporter Scott Friedman has been tracking the grid situation ever since then and has the details.

Since a massive winter storm wiped out power to much of Texas in 2021, winter weather often leads to questions about the state's power grid. But the grid was holding strong Thursday, with plenty of reserve power available, more than 12 hours into a storm that blanketed the DFW area with sleet and snow.

Throughout the afternoon Thursday, ERCOT’s grid condition tracker reported about 10,000 megawatts of reserve power, meaning significant excess supply was available to meet the demand despite the cold weather. Any power outages occurring in neighborhoods would be caused by local issues like ice on power lines and not by problems with the statewide grid.

Oncor, the Dallas-based company that operates the transmission lines in most of the DFW area, was reporting a small number of outages Thursday afternoon, affecting only about 600-2,000 customers at any given time, out of more than 4 million.

In the days leading up to the snow and sleet, ERCOT anticipated that statewide grid conditions would remain normal. The blast of cold hitting the state this week is much lighter than winter storm Uri, the 2021 storm that brought sub-zero temperatures to the state, wreaking havoc on power plants.

However, analysts who track the situation closely said that Texas is still at risk of rolling blackouts if we see a much colder, more intense storm like the one we experienced in 2021.

“As the population and energy demand have grown, if we were to have those weather conditions of 2021 again, we would have even more demand than we did then. And back then, the grid came one-third short of having enough power to go around. So, that's a huge margin that really no state had seen before,” said Daniel Cohan, an energy researcher at Rice University.

A report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation released in November said Texas remains at elevated risk of power shortfalls in extreme weather.

The report noted that even though more wind, solar, and traditional power plants are coming online, the electricity demand continues to rise. In June, ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told state lawmakers the grid’s capacity would need to increase dramatically over the next five years to keep up with growth.

NBC 5 Investigates reached out to ERCOT Thursday and an agency spokesperson said it, "…continues to work with the Texas legislature, the Public Utility Commission of Texas, and stakeholders in building a more resilient grid for the ongoing economic and population growth across the state."

Texas lawmakers are expected to take up the issue again as the next legislative session begins later this month.

Meanwhile, ERCOT has been checking power plants to ensure they are ready for the cold. Numbers obtained by NBC 5 Investigates this week show that ERCOT inspected about 150 power generators in December, with another 300 winter inspections planned over January-February.

Those inspections and the rules requiring power companies to prepare for winter weather were strengthened after the 2021 storm.

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