Tuesday night, Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred will face each other in the only statewide debate for the U.S. Senate. Both sides are campaigning like an upset is possible.
Cruz is still favored to win. Last time, the state's junior senator won by a little more than 200,000 votes. However, the big question mark in this race is the state's 2.5 million additional registered voters. How they vote may determine the outcome.
Both candidates seem to think the race will be closer than a normal statewide race, especially after Allred raised $9 million more than Cruz in the past three months.
“Texas is a battleground, and the Democrats are investing an enormous amount of money. All of y’all in the TV business are pretty happy right now. Chuck Schumer is spending over $100 million on TV ads. You can’t turn on the TV without seeing another TV ad," Cruz said outside an event in Waxahachie.
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While Texas is still a light red state with 30 years of Republican dominance in statewide races, the polling trend shows a race in the low single digits, with Cruz up from 5% to within the margin of error. The latest internal poll from the campaign arm of the Senate Republicans, obtained by POLITICO, shows Cruz only up 1%.
The reason? "Colin Allred has crept up on Ted Cruz by heavily outspending him for weeks," per the leaked memo.
“The more competitive you are, the more resources come to bear, and that’s from both sides of the aisle," said Jaime Harrison, chair of the Democratic National Committee, told NBC 5.
"Texas is a crown jewel," said Harrison on Lone Star Politics.
Per Harrison, the Democratic National Committee has sent monthly installments and two additional lump sums to the state party. He told NBC 5 that the national party had spent over $500,000 and another multi-million dollar effort through the Senate Democrats' campaign arm.
They are sending the money because they believe Cruz is beatable.
“You think about when you all had an ice storm? Instead of being here to help the folks in Texas get through that disaster, he was getting on a plane to go to Cancun," said Harrison.
Cruz and Republicans campaign on strong border security, low taxes, and low regulations. They believe they'll be able to weather any revolt brought on by the state's very strict abortion laws and the reputation of their top-of-the-ticket candidate after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
GOP leaders said an upset could happen if their voters take the race for granted.
“It’s not all about the money. It’s about getting your voters out. It’s about making sure that they’re excited about the race and they understand what’s at stake," said Rep. Beth Van Duyne, R-Irving, the state party "Victory Chair" over the 2024 election.
After months of campaigning, early voting begins Monday, Oct. 21 and runs through Friday, Nov. 1.
